With the month of April coming to a close, it is time for the savvy fantasy baseball owner to take that next step toward winning a championship. Owning players who are off to a hot start is great, but knowing how to further capitalize off their current, and likely unsustainable, performances is your ticket to winning.
We’ve all heard the term “sell-high,” and now is the time to do just that.
Deciding which players to trade can be difficult. We all want to believe, based on their current pace, we are witnessing something majestic — a breakout performance everyone will be talking about for years to come. But baseball is steeped in the law of averages, so understanding the concept of “what goes up must come down” is imperative to your overall success.
Take Brewers first baseman Eric Thames, for example. We all want to believe the 30-year old slugger has returned from three years in South Korea and is now one of the league’s premier power hitters, but his current pace of a .400 average with 86 home runs isn’t happening. Pitchers will make adjustments, rates and numbers will regress to the mean and though Thames still might be a great player, he isn’t Babe Ruth.
Selling Thames now while his value is at its peak is the move you want to make. Look at your overall team, find your holes and fill them by trading him for multiple parts. There always is someone in your league willing to take that leap of faith and believe. Take advantage of it and make your team stronger.
Former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel looks like he has regained his 2015 form, but a closer look at how he is pitching reveals very few strikes being thrown and a lot of over-aggressive hitters swinging at them. Once they stop fishing, Keuchel will be forced to throw more strikes, which should result in more hits and home runs allowed. Get out while you can and turn him into a pair of productive players with more stable long-term value.
Wanting to believe is fine, but being a realist is what brings home the title. Think of it as winning a big hand in blackjack. You can let it ride and risk it all on the next hand or you can walk away, cash in those chips and pay the rent. Sell Thames. Sell Keuchel. Pay that rent.
Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 4-6 p.m.